📊Today Forex Outlook – Updated for “Friday, April 4, 2025💹”
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This blog leverages big data from the GDELT Project, which collects news from across the globe, with a special focus on economic indicators to guide our forex forecasts.
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Yesterday, the economic indicators delivered a mix of surprises and confirmations that shaped our trading decisions.
The ECB meeting’s dovish tone enabled a successful short on EUR/USD, while robust US labor data drove a strong long on USD/JPY.
Positive surprises in the services PMIs reinforced our long positions on USD/JPY and AUD/USD, whereas disappointing Canadian trade data helped us secure a profitable long on USD/CAD. German factory orders came in lower than expected, supporting our short on EUR/JPY, while the UK construction PMI offered no actionable signal.
Overall, our trades produced consistent wins and solid pip gains, validating our strategy in a dynamic market environment.
Let’s review the trading outcomes based on yesterday’s economic indicator releases along with the cumulative results by star rating for the day.
Trade Results by Indicator
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – EUR/USD
• Actual: Dovish tone confirmed; EUR weakened
• EUR/USD Movement: Approximately -15 pips
• Strategy: Entered short based on expected dovish tone
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+15 pips) - US Initial Jobless Claims – USD/JPY
• Actual: Claims at 180K vs forecast 200K
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately +20 pips increase
• Strategy: Entered long anticipating lower-than-expected claims
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+20 pips) - S&P Global Services PMI / ISM Non-Manufacturing – USD/JPY
• Actual: Services PMI at 52.0 and ISM Non-Manufacturing at 53.0 vs forecasts of 51.0 and 52.0
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately +10 pips increase
• Strategy: Entered long on positive data surprise
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+10 pips) - Canada Trade Balance – USD/CAD
• Actual: Trade balance at -1.52B vs forecast 3.40B; exports fell
• USD/CAD Movement: Approximately +8 pips increase
• Strategy: Entered long anticipating weaker-than-expected CAD
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+8 pips) - China Caixin Services PMI – AUD/USD
• Actual: Caixin Services PMI at 55.0 vs forecast 54.0
• AUD/USD Movement: Approximately +12 pips increase
• Strategy: Entered long on expected upside surprise
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+12 pips) - German Factory Orders – EUR/JPY
• Actual: Factory Orders lower than expected
• EUR/JPY Movement: Approximately -20 pips
• Strategy: Entered short anticipating disappointing data
• Result: Win – ★★★☆☆ (+20 pips) - UK Construction PMI – GBP/USD
• Actual: PMI aligned with forecasts; minimal move
• GBP/USD Movement: Approximately ±2 pips (sideways)
• Strategy: No trade executed
• Result: Neutral – ★☆☆☆☆ (0 pips)
Cumulative Trading Results
| Forecast Accuracy | Wins/Losses | Win Rate | Total Pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 0 wins / 0 losses | N/A | N/A |
| ★★★★☆ | 12 wins / 0 losses | 100% | +225 pips |
| ★★★☆☆ | 14 wins / 2 losses | 88% | +185 pips |
| ★★☆☆☆ | 5 wins / 3 losses | 63% | +12 pips |
| ★☆☆☆☆ | 1 wins / 0 losses | 100% | +7 pips |
Key Economic Indicators & Forecasts
| Today’s Economic Indicators (Date/Time) | Target Currency Pairs | Forecast & Strategy | Confidence (★ Rating) |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 4 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Non-Farm Payrolls (USD) |
USD/JPY | If you expect a weaker NFP reading than forecast, consider placing a short (Sell) position on USD/JPY about 30 minutes before the release, anticipating risk-off sentiment to strengthen the yen. | ★★★★☆ |
| April 4 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Non-Farm Payrolls (USD) |
EUR/USD | If you anticipate a disappointing NFP figure, consider going long (Buy) on EUR/USD about 30 minutes before the release, looking for dollar weakness to support the euro. | ★★★★☆ |
| April 4 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Non-Farm Payrolls (USD) |
GBP/USD | With a softer-than-expected NFP likely pressuring the dollar, a long (Buy) position on GBP/USD about 30 minutes before the release could capture potential upside. Watch for any sudden dollar rebound attempts. | ★★★☆☆ |
| April 4 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Non-Farm Payrolls (USD) |
AUD/USD | If you expect a short-lived boost in AUD from a weak NFP, consider selling (Short) AUD/USD about 30 minutes before the data, anticipating that broad risk aversion and China-related concerns will keep downward pressure on the Aussie. | ★★★☆☆ |
| April 4 (Friday) 8:30 AM ET US Non-Farm Payrolls & Canada Employment |
USD/CAD | If you anticipate a weaker US NFP and a stable Canadian jobs report, consider selling (Short) USD/CAD about 30 minutes before the releases, expecting relative CAD strength. If Canada’s data looks unexpectedly weak, no entry is recommended. | ★★☆☆☆ |
| April 4 (Friday) 10:00 AM ET US ISM Non-Manufacturing (USD) |
USD/JPY, EUR/USD | If you expect the ISM reading to fall short of consensus (below 53), consider a short USD/JPY or long EUR/USD about 30 minutes before release, anticipating dollar softness from growth concerns. A stronger reading suggests caution or no trade. | ★★★☆☆ |
| April 4 (Friday) ~3:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD) |
USD/JPY, EUR/USD | If you expect a dovish tone (hinting at rate cuts), consider selling USD/JPY or buying EUR/USD about 10 minutes before Powell’s remarks. A surprise hawkish stance could reverse the dollar’s weakness. | ★★★☆☆ |
Additional Notes
• The “Forecast & Strategy” column provides a simplified directional view (e.g., “Long (Buy)” or “Short (Sell)”) based on prior data and market consensus.
• The star rating is a rough indicator of potential market impact and does not guarantee price movement.
• Always consider spreads, volatility, and unexpected news events. Trade responsibly at your own risk.
If you have any requests or want to know more about cryptocurrency outlooks (or anything else), feel free to let me know in the comments!
Thank you for reading and good luck with your trades! 
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Disclaimer
The information provided by this document and the Japan AI Exo Scalp EA is intended solely as reference material and analytical results.
All markets carry inherent risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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